Android is in trouble, says @mjburnsy and I agree.

Matt Burns for TechCrunch:

A dive at wireless carrier’s financials shows that the iPhone accounted for a whopping 59% of smartphone sales in the U.S. last quarter. The iPhone 4S downright crushed a league of new Android flagship handsets.

and, talking about the iPhone:

There isn’t a better universal smartphone on the market. This isn’t open for discussion and the numbers prove it. Smartphones are now outselling less expensive feature phones with the iPhone as the number one seller. That states above all else that consumers overwhelmingly prefer Apple’s take on mobile phones.

Which doesn’t really surprise me. Apple sells an ecosystem, not devices you have to tweak to fit your other computer-related stuff.

He then talks about his own experience, which reflects on many stories I have heard from other people in my circle:

I’m downright fed up with Android. Others must be with me. I’m ready to jump ship to the iPhone after being an Android user since the original Droid. Updates aren’t regular or useful and the vast fragmentation in hardware causes apps to be very inconsistent in quality. The only thing holding me back is Android’s workflow allowed by homescreen widgets. But the average consumer doesn’t care about workflow nonsense. They want a phone that works and they’re choosing the iPhone. And the iPad.

There are quite a few Android “superphones” around my work. Most of them were purchased by first-time smartphone buyers. Most of them will never buy another Android. Anecdotal? Sure, but many stories around the web seem to fit this trend.

Next up: traditional PC’s:

Apple already owns the smartphone and tablet market. The PC market doesn’t matter anymore. The company has moved past caring about low-margin computing products.

This is very hard for many people to understand: Apple does not compete on specs.

…and the business aspect:

Even without directly targeting the corporate space, the iPad and iPhone are already a major force in corner offices. Apple simply needs to implement stronger email and security settings and grant IT departments a bit more control of devices to effectively kill RIM.

RIM is dead. All I see at work, and in private, are iPads and iPhones…with the occasional Android phone making an appearance, as mentioned above.

Android is screwed.

Android is the only hope to stand tall against Apple and it’s currently in a sad state. Google is giving OEMs too much leeway. The old adage of choice is good is working against Android. Four years after Android launched, consumers overwhelming choosing the competitor within the last three months. Google needs to rein its armies back in and refocus with a unified message. As an owner of both an Android and iPhone, I sincerely believe Android is a better OS but the iPhone is a better device.

and

Samsung has the right idea with the Galaxy line. As their adverts assert, they’re anti-iPhones thanks to their larger screens and wide range of models. Motorola took a step in a similar direction with RAZR MAXX. The larger battery offers something different than iPhone clones. But even with the launch of these major flagships, the iPhone 4S trampled on their highly advertised launch parades.

Think about that: Brand new “superphones”, and people buy, in droves, a 6-month old iPhone.
I disagree with the “better OS” assertion btw. The idea might be better, but the implementation lacks behind big time.

The iOS behemoth will not be stopped. Android’s needless fragmentation and constant infighting will ensure that. The iPad will slowly morph into the de facto personal computing device. There will still be alternatives. Android and Windows will not completely go away, but Apple’s massive cash reserves will allow it to sway markets and assert unquestionable power.

I agree.

China is key to Apple’s strategy:

It was announced in this week’s earning call that revenue from the Chinese market increased threefold over last year’s second quarter to $12.4 billion. In fact that falls just short of Apple’s previous complete year revenue from the prior year. And this is without the country’s largest carrier, China Mobile, offering the iPhone to its 600 million subscribers.

I predict Apple will sell close to, or even more than, 150 million iPhones in fiscal year 2012 alone. For reference: We’re at around 72,1 million so far.

Gizmodo: The Biggest Mistake People Made About the iPad. Umm, no…

Over at Gizmodo Brian Barrett has an article titled: The Biggest Mistake People Made About the iPad, and I really need to say something about it.

Not really the headline, which seems intriguing at first, but about the content. He starts of with

The original iPad certainly had its detractors. But for all the myriad complaints about that big ol’ bezel, the lack of cameras, the name, and so on, there was one refrain that echoed loudest among the haters: It’s just a big iPhone.

…aaand that’s where the trouble starts: Nobody, and I mean nobody said that. People said exactly what he’s saying later on:

You know what? They were wrong. We all were. As Farhad Manjoo points out in Slate, the iPad isn’t an iPhone at all. It’s an iPod. And more than anything, that’s why it’s been so successful.

For reference: The original article at Slate.

So yeah, that’s where the whole thing falls apart, isn’t it?

He goes on to proclaim that the iPad started out with around 90% of the tablet market, then fell to about 60%, but if you don’t count the Kindle and the Nook it’s still around 80%. Seriously? Who counts Fire’s and Nook’s as tablets? I mean as tablets competing with the iPad? Right, no one. Besides, selling “into the channel” isn’t the same as “selling to the end customer”, the latter of course being what Apple does, and the former being what the others do.

Then he points out that the iPad is “out-muscled” by the like of the Transformer Prime. Really? Where? How? When did that happen? Not even the iPad 2 is outperformed by those tablets…at all. Especially in any category that counts for anybody, like say…the ecosystem, the responsiveness, the none existent learning curve, the concise UI/UX, etc.

After this we’re treated to the ol’ “it’s an expensive toy” – yeah, amateur hour is over and all that. How has that worked out by the way?

Not missing a step it’s on to the “the competition will throw everything they have at it, and that’s why it will be like the iPhone”. So, the “competition” hasn’t thrown everything at it yet? Ok, when will we see that? They’re clearly waiting for something then, right? I guess we’ll see it when the “Galaxy 9.2938569496836274987 Super Duper HD Ha-Retina! foldable waterproof up to 1000 meters with 100 ports for 699,- plus a 10-year contract” tablet comes, right? Yeah, because we haven’t seen that before.

Brian leaves us with

The iPad has existed comfortably as an iPod, yes. And enjoyed the same ridiculously excessive success. But the romp may be just about over. Amazon. Samsung. Microsoft. Asus. Nvidia. Barnes & Noble. They’re going to fight the tablet war for as long as it takes. The only question now is if there’s any ammo left.

Cute.

Read it here, if you must.

The tablet market in my POV.

Charles Arthur of guardian.co.uk quotes Strategy Analytics article which says that Android captured 39% share of the global tablet market shipments.

My beef is not so much with the misleading headline at The Guardian, but with the firm that lead to it, although they’re no more guilty than all the others.

It has been consistantely proven that “analysts” really don’t know what they’re talking about when it comes to these markets. So why bother quoting them at all?

Anyways, I’ve been collecting real world data from a site that has north of 2 million visits a day. Here’s what I found:
Out of 2.4 million visits:
- 1.6 million Windows
- 0,6 million Apple
- 20 thousand Linux
- 3 thousand Symbian
- the rest were mainly http GET requests, webcrawlers, bots, and the likes.

Broken down even further, focusing on Android, iPad, and iPhone – here’s what my enormous grep skills came up with:
- 440.000 iPhone requests
- 240.000 iPad requests
- 2.300 Android requests
You read that right. Not even 1% of all mobile requests came from Android, and this is not even considering all iOS devices – just the iPad.

Conclusion:
Sell-in != Sell-through.

Thoughts:
I wonder when retailers will wake up and stop ordering D.O.A. tablets to fill their warehouses?
I wonder when analysts….ah, never mind.